ABSTRACT
This study aims to improve control schemes for COVID-19 by a numerical model with estimation of parameters. We established a multi-level and multi-objective nonlinear SEIDR model to simulate the virus transmission. The early spread in Japan was adopted as a case study. The first 96 days since the infection were divided into five stages with parameters estimated. Then, we analyzed the trend of the parameter value, age structure ratio, and the defined PCR test index (standardization of the scale of PCR tests). It was discovered that the self-healing rate and confirmed rate were linear with the age structure ratio and the PCR test index using the stepwise regression method. The transmission rates were related to the age structure ratio, PCR test index, and isolation efficiency. Both isolation measures and PCR test medical screening can effectively reduce the number of infected cases based on the simulation results. However, the strategy of increasing PCR test medical screening would encountered a bottleneck effect on the virus control when the index reached 0.3. The effectiveness of the policy would decrease and the basic reproduction number reached the extreme value at 0.6. This study gave a feasible combination for isolation and PCR test by simulation. The isolation intensity could be adjusted to compensate the insufficiency of PCR test to control the pandemic.
ABSTRACT
This study investigates citizen assessments of government actions in the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Empirical analyses based on a large-scale online survey indicate that the Chinese public expects the government to improve its support for the frontline medical staff, management of public stress and anxiety, and disclosure of government information. Specifically, indirect exposure to COVID-19 through second-hand information is negatively associated with citizen assessments of government actions;by contrast, the first-hand frontline experience with the epidemic is positively associated with citizen assessments of government actions. Findings suggest that citizens with first-hand experience might be more able to judge government actions under the actual constraints of resources and opportunities, and are less likely to overemphasize the costs or risks associated with government actions than others without frontline experience. Our work suggests that governments should effectively communicate detailed information regarding government actions to the public during public health emergencies, as more informed citizens might be more supportive of governments with limited resources and, probably, more actively collaborate with governments.